Clinical prediction rule

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Editor-In-Chief: C. Michael Gibson, M.S., M.D. [1]; Associate Editor(s)-In-Chief: Ujjwal Rastogi, M.B.B.S. [2], Sadaf Sharfaei M.D.[3], Rohan A. Bhimani, M.B.B.S., D.N.B., M.Ch.[4]

Overview

A clinical prediction rule is type of medical research study in which researchers try to identify the best combination of medical sign, symptoms, and other findings in predicting the probability of a specific disease or outcome.[1]

Physicians have difficulty in estimated risks of diseases; frequently erring towards overestimation[2], perhaps due to cognitive biases such as base rate fallacy in which the risk of an adverse outcome is exaggerated.

Methods

In a prediction rule study, investigators identify a consecutive group of patients who are suspected of a having a specific disease or outcome. The investigators then compare the value of clinical findings available to the physician versus the results of more intensive testing or the results of delayed clinical follow up.

A survey of methods concluded "the majority of prediction studies in high impact journals do not follow current methodological recommendations, limiting their reliability and applicability."[3]

Effect on Health Outcomes

Few prediction rules have had the consequences of their usage by physicians quantified.[4]

When studied, the impact of providing the information alone (for example, providing the calculated probability of disease) has been negative.[5][6]

However, when the prediction rule is implemented as part of a critical pathway, so that a hospital or clinic has procedures and policies established for how to manage patients identified as high or low risk of disease, the prediction rule has more impact on clinical outcomes.[7]

The more intensively the prediction rule is implemented the more benefit will occur.[8]

Examples of Prediction Rules

Cardiovascular Diseases

Acute MI / Unstable Angina

For the main page on acute coronary syndromes, click here

Risk Score Year Purpose
TIMI risk score 2000 Unstable Angina
TIMI risk score 2000 STEMI
Morrow et al (TIME II substudy)[9] 2001 Predicting mortality in STEMI
Silver et al[10] 1994 To predict preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in patients after MI
The GRACE risk score 2003 For risk of death in NSTEMI
ACI-TIPI risk score[11] 1991 To assess the likelihood of patients having acute cardiac ischemia and thus the appropriateness of admitting them to the coronary care unit (CCU)
Goldman algorithm[12] 1988 To predict the likelihood that a patient has a myocardial infarction
Hathaway et al[13] 1998 Prognosis based on initial ECG
Selker et al[14] 1991 Risk of death in AMI
Piombo et al[15] 2003 To stratify risk in unstable angina
Solomon et al[16] 2001 To identify which patients benefit from immediate coronary angiography and revascularization
Sabatine et al[17] 2001 To identify the benefit of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor therapy in patients with unstable angina pectoris

Stroke, Atrial Fibrillation

Risk Score Year Purpose
HAS-BLED 2010 Bleeding risk stratification score for those on oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation
ABCD 2[18] 2010 Stroke risk with TIA
CHA2DS2-VASc Score 2009 To predict clinical risk of stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation
Schnabel et al[19] Framingham Heart Study[5] 2009 10 years risk of Atrial fibrillation
HEMORR2HAGES[20] 2006 Bleeding Risk Score
ABCD[21] 2005 Stroke risk after TIA
van Walraven et al[22] 2003 Stroke risk - atrial fib
Wang et al[23] 2003 To predict 1 year stroke mortality
Counsel et al[24] 2003 Acute stroke prognosis (6 variable score)
Wang et al[25] Framingham Heart Study[6] 2003 Stroke after Atrial fibrillation
Wang et al[25] Framingham Heart Study[7] 2003 Stroke or death after Atrial fibrillation
Efstathiou et al[26] 2002 To differentiate Ischemic from hemorrhagic stroke
Lumley et al[27] 2002 To predict stroke in elderly
CHADS2 2001 Risk of stroke with AFIB
Baird et al[28] 2001 To predict stroke recovery
Wang et al[29] 2001 To predict 30 days stroke mortality
NIH Stroke Scale[30] 1999 To predicts the likelihood of a patient's recovery after stroke
Cincinnati stroke scale[31] 1999 Stroke diagnosis
D'Agostino et al[32] Framingham Heart Study [8] 1994 Risk of stroke

Deep Venous Thrombosis and Pulmonary Embolism

Risk Score Year Purpose
Wells score 2000 Pulmonary embolism

Hypertension, Lipid and Screening

Risk Score Year Purpose
Parikh et al[33] Framingham Heart Study[9] 2008 Hypertension risk score
NCEP ATP III[34] 2001 Screening: lipid guideline
Krijnen et al [35] 1998 To predict renal artery stenosis
Murabito et al[36] Framingham Heart Study[10] 1997 Intermittent claudication

Chest Pain and CAD

Risk Score Year Purpose
Panic Screening Score[37] 2011 Screening score to improve recognition of panic-like anxiety in emergency department (ED) patients with unexplained chest pain
Pencina et al[38] Framingham Heart Study[11] 2009 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease
North American Chest Pain Rule[39] 2008 For early discharge of patients with chest pain
Vancouver chest pain rule[40] 2006 For early discharge of patients with chest pain
Duke treadmill score [41] 1999 To risk-stratify patients with ST-T abnormalities on the resting ECG
Wilson et al[42] Framingham Heart Study[12] 1998 10-year risk of coronary heart disease
Diamond et al [43] 1979 Pretest probability of CAD

Angioplasty

Risk Score Year Purpose
Halkin et al[44] 2005 Angioplasty complication rate
Fortescue et al[45] 2003 Angioplasty complication rate
Singh et al[46] 2002 Angioplasty complication rate
Resnic et al[47] 2001 Angioplasty complication rate
Moscucci et al[48] 2001 Mortality after angioplasty

Valve and Endocarditis

Risk Score Year Purpose
Otto et al[49] 1988 AV replacement in aortic stenosis.
Koplan et al[50] 2003 To predict the need for permanent pacing after cardiac valve surgery
Hasbun et al[51] 2003 Endocarditis prognosis

Others

Risk Score Year Purpose
Feringa et al[52] 2007 Peripheral vascular disease prognosis.

Orthopedics Scores

Risk Score Purpose
Open Fractures
Mangled Extremity Score[53] Clinician completed the score to determine which mangled limbs will eventually come to amputation.
Ganga Hospital Open Injury Score (GHOIS)[54] Clinician completed the score to help them in decision making regarding salvage in IIIB injuries.
Knee (Anterior Cruciate Ligament)
Modified Cincinnati Rating system[55] Clinician and patient completed the score for evaluation of functional activity levels after surgery.
Tegner Lysholm Knee Scoring Scale[56] Clinician and patient completed score for evaluation of functional activity levels after surgery.
KOOS (Knee Injury & Osteoarthritis Outcome)[57] Patient completed the score to assess response to surgery and physical therapy for patients undergoing anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.
Foot/Ankle
American Foot & Ankle Score[58] Clinician completed the score to provide a standard method of reporting clinical status of the ankle and foot.
Foot & Ankle Disability Index[59] Patient completed the score for to assess functional limitations related to foot and ankle conditions.
Wrist
MAYO Wrist Score[60] Clinician completed the score to assess the outcome folowign management of scaphoid fractures.
DASH (Disabilities of arm, shoulder & hand) Score[61] Patient completed the score to measure physical function and symptoms in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper limb.
Quick-DASH Score[62] Patient completed score to determine the disability experienced by patients with any musculoskeletal condition of the upper extremity and to monitor change in symptoms and upper limb function over time. It is a shortened version of the DASH.
Hand
Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire[63] Patient completed the score which allowed assessment of activity of daily living in patients with hand disability.
DASH (Disabilities of arm, shoulder & hand) Score[64] Patient completed the score to measure physical function and symptoms in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper limb.
Quick-DASH Score[62] Patient completed score to determine the disability experienced by patients with any musculoskeletal condition of the upper extremity and to monitor change in symptoms and upper limb function over time. It is a shortened version of the DASH.
Lumbar Spine
Oswestry Low Back Pain Score[65] Patient completed the score to determine the disability experienced by patients with low back pain.
Modified Oswestry Low Back Pain Score[66] Patient completed score to determine the disability experienced by patients with low back pain before and after the surgery.
Back Pain Index[67] Patient completed the score to determine how back condition affects their everyday life.
Cervical Spine
Vernon & Mior Cervical Spine Score[68] Patient completed score to how their neck pain has affected their ability to manage in everyday life.
Hip
Harris Hip Score[69][70] Clinician completed score for the assessment of the results of hip surgery, and is intended to evaluate various hip disabilities and methods of treatment in an adult population.
Oxford Hip Score [71][72] Patient completed score for to assess outcome after total hip replacement (THR) by measuring patients' perceptions in adjunction to surgery.
HOOS (Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome)[73] Patient completed the score to give their opinion about their hip and associated problems, and is intended to be used in an adult population with hip disability with or without osteoarthritis.
WOMAC Score[74][75] Patient completed score for for measuring quality of life (QOL) in patient suffering from osteoarthritis.
Knee (Osteo Arthritis)
Oxford Knee Score[76] Patient completed score to assess the severity of disability from osteoarthritis before and after 6 months of surgery.
KOOS (Knee Injury & Osteoarthritis Outcome)[57] Patient completed the score to assess severity in patients with osteoarthritis.
WOMAC Score[74][75] Patient completed the score for measuring quality of life (QOL) in patient suffering from osteoarthritis.
IKDC[77] Patient completed the score for evaluation of functional activity levels.
Knee Society Score (KSS)[78] Clinician completed score to assess objective knee disability, patient satisfaction and expectation level, and functional activity level.
Shoulder
Constant Shoulder Score[79] Clinician completed the score for clinical functional assessment for shoulder complaints before and after surgery.
UCLA Shoulder rating scale[80] Clinician completed the score to assess diability, pain and patient satisfaction.
Oxford Shoulder Score[81] Patient completed the score for assessment of pain and function of the shoulder.
American Shoulder And Elbow Surgeons (ASES) Society Score [82] Patient completed the score for assessing activities of daily living (ADL).
DASH (Disabilities of arm, shoulder & hand) Score[83] Patient completed the score to measure physical function and symptoms in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper limb.
Quick-DASH Score[62] Patient completed score to determine the disability experienced by patients with any musculoskeletal condition of the upper extremity and to monitor change in symptoms and upper limb function over time. It is a shortened version of the DASH.
Shoulder (Instability)
Rowe Score for Instability[84] Clinician completed the score for assessing stability, motion and function after the surgery for shoulder instability.
Oxford Shoulder Instability Score[85] Patient completed score for assessing the outcome of treatment for shoulder instability.
WOSI (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index)[86] Patient completed the score for measuring disease-specific quality of life in patient suffering from shoulder instability.
Elbow
MAYO Elbow Score[87] Clinician completed the score for evaluating disability associated with elbow injuries.
Oxford Elbow Score[88] Patient completed score to measures injury-related quality of life in patients following surgery of the elbow joint
DASH (Disabilities of arm, shoulder & hand) Score[89] Patient completed the score to measure physical function and symptoms in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper limb.
Quick-DASH Score[62] Patient completed score to determine the disability experienced by patients with any musculoskeletal condition of the upper extremity and to monitor change in symptoms and upper limb function over time. It is a shortened version of the DASH.
VAS
VAS Score[90] Clinician and patient completed the score for evaluation of pain severity and relief.
Psychological
DRAM (Distress and Risk Assessment Method)[91] Patient completed the score to measure psychological distress in patients presenting for orthopaedic care.

Other Organ System

Rules predicting complications in diseased patients
Risk Score Purpose
Gastroentestinal diseases
Ranson criteria To predict the severity of acute pancreatitis
Tygerberg score To differentiate tuberculosis as a cause of pericarditis
MELD To assess the severity of chronic liver disease
Orthopedic diseases
QFracture score[13] Osteoporosis
Ottawa ankle rules To decide for offering Xray to patient with foot or ankle pain
Respiratory diseases
Pneumonia severity index To calculate the probability of morbidityand mortality among patients with community acquired pneumonia
CURB-65 To predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia
Apnea-hypopnea index To assess the overall severity of sleep apnea
Amar et al[92] To calculate pulmonary complications after thoracic surgery for primary Lung Cancer

Adverse Effects

Patients may not be comfortable with the way a doctor may integrate decision support into practice.[93]

References

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  44. Halkin A, Singh M, Nikolsky E, Grines CL, Tcheng JE, Garcia E, Cox DA, Turco M, Stuckey TD, Na Y, Lansky AJ, Gersh BJ, O'Neill WW, Mehran R, Stone GW (2005). "Prediction of mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction: the CADILLAC risk score". J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. 45 (9): 1397–405. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2005.01.041. PMID 15862409. Retrieved 2012-05-15. Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  45. Fortescue EB, Kahn K, Bates DW (2003). "Major adverse outcomes after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty: a clinical prediction rule". J Clin Epidemiol. 56 (1): 17–27. PMID 12589866. Retrieved 2012-05-15. Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
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